Spotify has 500 million monthly active users, yet the business model economics are far from proven. It doesn't help to grow users without any regard for profitability, or all that is happening is that the losses are getting bigger! In our research, we delve into both the strategic drivers and the key trends in ARPU and gross margin to arrive at our conclusion. Spoiler alert: we are bearish.
With a background at Roubini Global Economics and extensive experience across developed, emerging and even frontier markets, Rachel Ziemba brings a wealth of macroeconomic and geopolitical experience to Magic Markets. Having worked several times in the past with our very own Mohammed Nalla, Rachel agreed to join us for a discussion on general global trends and the perception of South Africa on the international stage. We covered topics including: Thoughts on where we are in the cycle, including global optimism around China and commodities despite some dissenting voices who think we could be heading back to a 2008/2009 scenario. The additional [...]
If there’s one thing we are learning in Formula One this year, it’s that Fernando Alonso has more resilience and staying power than many international companies! Now driving for Aston Martin, a strong result in the opening race of the year certainly gave the brand a boost. It also led to many momentum and sentiment traders pulling the stock up on their screens on Monday morning, using it as an effective alternative to a bit of sports betting! “Betting” may well be the word here, as Aston Martin’s financial history is more checkered than the flag at the end of the [...]
Use the podcast player below to listen to our discussion on CrowdStrike and its Q4'23 result, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 16 March 2023) Stop breaches. Drive business. That’s the tagline when you Google CrowdStrike, making it quite clear that the falcon in the logo is looking for cyberattacks and doing so with enthusiasm. Every year, CrowdStrike releases a Global Threat Report with all kinds of illustrated “adversaries” and villains, effectively gamifying the world of cybersecurity. Like any security company, CrowdStrike sells fear. They sell protection from those adversaries. With the company losing a third of its [...]
In this episode of Magic Markets, Craig Antonie of AnBro Capital Investments joined us to discuss a few energy opportunities in the US that the AnBro funds have positions in. There are both dividend- and growth-oriented funds available at AnBro, so there is something for (almost) everyone. The energy theme is a major driver of global markets at the moment, with a clear push towards clean and green energy (not always the same thing) and inflationary pressure in fossil fuel prices as a result. With a major regulatory move in the form of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the US [...]
Use the podcast player below to listen to our discussion on Comcast and its Q4'22 result, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 9 March 2023) Comcast is a bit like the love child of AT&T and Disney, with a traditional cable broadband business making most of the money that funds the management team’s adventures in the media industry. Reading back into the history of Universal Film and NBC shows just how significantly media has changed in the last few years, as for decades it was all about the initial growth of TV and radio. Steeped in history, Comcast’s [...]
Regular listeners of Magic Markets have learnt a great deal about alternative investments and private deals, thanks to the various professionals at Westbrooke Alternative Asset Management who have joined us on the show. Richard Asherson and James Lightbody join us this week to update us on the UK market and the conditions under which the Westbrooke Yield Plus fund operates. The focus of the fund is capital preservation, and with it now turning 5 years old and having consistently delivered in the target return band of cash plus 5% to 7% in GBP, we wanted to go deeper into the success [...]
Use the podcast player below to listen to our discussion on MercadoLibre and its Q4'22 result, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 2 March 2023) In 2022, MercadoLibre achieved three big milestones that they describe as 100, 10 and 1. That means $100 billion in payments processed, $10 billion in revenue and $1 billion in EBIT. Latin America’s leading eCommerce platform is more than just Amazon or Etsy. There’s a strong flavour of Tencent going on here, which isn’t a bad thing. Perhaps most of all, the similarities to Alibaba are striking. Operating in a high growth region [...]
In Magic Markets, we try to eat our own cooking. When we cover stocks in Premium, it’s either because we already have a position in them or because we are interested in taking a position and want to do further research. In this episode of Magic Markets, we took advantage of a “just the two of us” situation to talk about some of the positions in our portfolios. Moe opted to talk about Visa, Disney and Simon Property Group, as well as Fedex as an example of a trade that got away. The Finance Ghost spoke about Hasbro as a mistake, [...]
Use the podcast player below to listen to our discussion on Generac and its Q4'22 result, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 23 February 2023) Generac has been at it for more than half a century, providing businesses and homes with alternative power solutions like generators. Fuelled by liquid propane, natural gas or diesel fuel, generators have unfortunately become a reality for most South African businesses. The South African distributor is Bundu Power, which is being acquired by JSE-listed group Ellies. But with Generac, you can go right to the top and invest in the products themselves, giving [...]
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