Ulta Beauty is a specialist cosmetics retailer that has attracted the eye of Berkshire Hathaway. If the Oracle of Omaha likes it, does that mean that we should as well? It may not be that simple, with a tough competitive environment that is putting Ulta's margins under significant pressure. Does the current valuation reflect that?
Target is the retailer that has been left behind, with Walmart and Costco enjoying a massive uplift in multiples and Target experiencing only modest share price gains that haven’t beaten the index. Part of this is because of a lack of moat and some brand confusion, with Target pushing a value strategy on one hand and yet a more upmarket feel than Walmart on the other. With sales growth having stagnated but earnings on the up, is there an opportunity here for Target as the forgotten retailer?
Airbnb has suffered a significant sell-off in the share price, with the market very worried about growth prospects. This is the danger of a platform company trading at high valuation multiples that assume ongoing levels of growth. If you look deeper though, Airbnb is a profitable business that has carved out a strong market position. Are they getting it wrong lately though, with a position that puts hosts above travelers? Or are there other reasons for the slowdown?
Costco is famous for two things: cheap hotdogs and a membership model with subscription fees. The cost of the hotdog might be staying put but the membership fees aren’t, with Costco hiking the fees for the first time in years. That’s grabbing all the headlines right now, but there’s far more to the story. With such a strong run in the share price, is it overcooked? Or is the current valuation justified?
Walmart is a good example of a pullback from the work-from-home trend that became a feature of the pandemic, with many viewing this as a return to the company’s roots. This is seen favourable against a backdrop of improved performance at Walmart. Under Armour is also going back to its roots, more out of necessity than by design. Founder Kevin Plank is back in the CEO role and has a very tough road ahead, with the company experiencing a sharp drop in sales and needing to reposition its products as premium.
Foot Locker and Nike: friends, but also enemies. Foot Locker is Nike’s customer, yet Foot Locker’s customers are also Nike’s customers. Nike’s customers are Foot Locker’s customers. As you can see, there’s only one way to describe the relationship status here: complicated. Foot Locker has been the love-to-hate stock that value investors sometimes dip into. Nike has been a growth investor favourite, yet the stock really hasn’t done well either.
FedEx and Lululemon have both been covered and recapped on Magic Markets Premium before. We love circling back and revisiting companies that we’ve researched before, as the feedback loop is so important when testing how an investment thesis played out. Join us in this week's free show for an update on the latest company news and our updated views.
Under Armour is a bit like ordering Nike on Wish. As the joke goes, you aren’t quite getting what you thought you paid for. The business operates in the apparel market, yet it has struggled to gain proper traction with consumers. The leadership of the group is now in disarray, after the sudden departure of the CEO and the return of the founder to that role. Is Under Armour truly broken, or is this an interesting speculative play?
Platform businesses are fascinating things that can make a great deal of money at scale. This week in Magic Markets Premium, we covered Uber and its emergence as a financial butterfly in literally the last year. To keep the platform theme going, we decided to cover Airbnb and Shopify in this week’s free Magic Markets show, made possible by B2IT.
In this episode of Magic Markets, we dug in the back of our cupboards for the shoes we are too embarrassed to wear. Perhaps we just aren’t fashionable enough, as there are many celebrities wearing Birkenstocks. As for Crocs, there are few who would put those on a pedestal for beautiful design. Moe covered Crocs in this show, starting with a recap of some of the points we covered when issuing our Magic Markets Premium report on Crocs some time ago. Ghost took on the responsibility of Birkenstock, which executed its IPO just a few months ago. Of the two ugly shoe contenders, which one is a buy? And does Birkenstock make a decent case for itself to be covered in Magic Markets Premium at some stage? Listen to this podcast to find out.
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