Costco is one of the most successful companies in the world. The model simply works – with strong member retention and great prices offered to those who pay for the privilege of shopping at Costco. Sadly, the valuation is the poster child for the current situation in equity markets after years of stimulus. Is it so expensive that it is best ignored?
Purveyors of the famous check pattern, Burberry is iconic British luxury at its best. Or is that worst? The recent financial performance has been poor to say the least and in a sector where family dynasties are par for the course, Burberry struggles to even have consistency at CEO level. With some signs of life in the latest quarter, will Burberry be one of the great turnaround stories this year?
Walgreens is a leading retail pharmacy group that is in a turnaround process. With a strong recent rally in the share price, the market likes what it is seeing – but that rally has come after plenty of pain in the share price. Structurally, the business has some weak spots that make it a difficult long-term play. Tactically though, 2025 could bring opportunities to those who watch the stock closely.
Stories like Nike and Walgreens in the international market (both recently covered in Magic Markets Premium), as well as Pick n Pay in South Africa, tend to grab the imagination of investors as they go through a turnaround. In this episode, we start off with some of the key macroeconomic indicators that investors and traders use to assess the health of the retail industry. We then go into the process of a typical turnaround, along with the milestones that are usually seen. Turnarounds in the retail sector are highly speculative and therefore offer strong rewards for those who get them right. This podcast will increase your understanding of how these turnarounds work.
Walmart is the biggest name in retail. They know how to move with the times, with an eCommerce strategy that is starting to really blossom. The market loves what it sees, with Walmart trading at much higher multiples than its long-term averages. Then again, when delivering growth with such consistency, where is the limit for this valuation? And is there a pairs trade in this sector as well?
Amazon has been a story of a platform business blossoming into profitability after a period of extensive investment. With a formidable moat in both eCommerce and cloud, along with a valuation multiple below major peers, is Amazon becoming one of the better Magnificent 7 opportunities?
Ulta Beauty is a specialist cosmetics retailer that has attracted the eye of Berkshire Hathaway. If the Oracle of Omaha likes it, does that mean that we should as well? It may not be that simple, with a tough competitive environment that is putting Ulta's margins under significant pressure. Does the current valuation reflect that?
Ulta Beauty is a specialist cosmetics retailer that has attracted the eye of Berkshire Hathaway. If the Oracle of Omaha likes it, does that mean that we should as well? It may not be that simple, with a tough competitive environment that is putting Ulta's margins under significant pressure. Does the current valuation reflect that?
Target is the retailer that has been left behind, with Walmart and Costco enjoying a massive uplift in multiples and Target experiencing only modest share price gains that haven’t beaten the index. Part of this is because of a lack of moat and some brand confusion, with Target pushing a value strategy on one hand and yet a more upmarket feel than Walmart on the other. With sales growth having stagnated but earnings on the up, is there an opportunity here for Target as the forgotten retailer?
Airbnb has suffered a significant sell-off in the share price, with the market very worried about growth prospects. This is the danger of a platform company trading at high valuation multiples that assume ongoing levels of growth. If you look deeper though, Airbnb is a profitable business that has carved out a strong market position. Are they getting it wrong lately though, with a position that puts hosts above travelers? Or are there other reasons for the slowdown?
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