Spotify has 500 million monthly active users, yet the business model economics are far from proven. It doesn't help to grow users without any regard for profitability, or all that is happening is that the losses are getting bigger! In our research, we delve into both the strategic drivers and the key trends in ARPU and gross margin to arrive at our conclusion. Spoiler alert: we are bearish.
Use the podcast player below to listen to our discussion on Comcast and its Q4'22 result, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 9 March 2023) Comcast is a bit like the love child of AT&T and Disney, with a traditional cable broadband business making most of the money that funds the management team’s adventures in the media industry. Reading back into the history of Universal Film and NBC shows just how significantly media has changed in the last few years, as for decades it was all about the initial growth of TV and radio. Steeped in history, Comcast’s [...]
Use the podcast player below to listen to our discussion on Warner Music Group and its Q4'22 result, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 8 December 2022) There’s not much that Beethoven, Madonna, Ed Sheeran, Coldplay and David Guetta have in common, other than a shared commercial relationship through Warner Music Group. The company calls itself an expert in the art of amplification, taking artists from small gigs to filled stadiums and top videos on YouTube. With a 200-year history and 1.4 million copyrights, Warner Music Group has a rich history. Returns since the IPO date have disappointed, [...]
Use the podcast player below to listen to our discussion on Netflix and its Q3’22 result, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 27 October 2022) When we recap stocks we’ve previously covered, we usually recap at least two companies in one show. Netflix is an exception, as the model is changing and Netflix is exhibiting the characteristics of a startup. Coupled with exciting recent price action, we felt that there’s been enough interest in this company and movement in the underlying thesis to warrant another standalone podcast and report. Welcome to Netflix: The Sequel! In January, Netflix was [...]
Use the podcast player below to listen to our recap on Disney and Netflix, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 24 August 2022) Recap shows are important in Magic Markets Premium. We strongly believe in a feedback loop and assessing our views and expectations against what actually happened. We always give it a few months after our work for a clear trend to establish itself. In this show, we recap Netflix for the first time and Disney for the second time. We just couldn't resist the recent share price action in Disney. Comparing the Netflix narrative with Disney [...]
Use the podcast player below to listen to our discussion on Netflix and its Q4’21 result, which accompanies the detailed write-up below: (Date of report: 26 January 2022) It's not every day that one of the most popular companies in the world sheds a quarter of its market cap in a single day. Toddler Ghost may be a huge fan of CocoMelon, but even that wasn't enough to save the share price. Did anyone see it coming? Well, we've flagged the free cash flow risks before, so the short answer is yes. Moe got in nice and early and has still [...]
It's an investment rumble in the jungle, as the House of Mouse takes on Netflix. Although Netflix gets all the credit for being a techy platform company (and included in the FAANG group), Disney+ already has nearly 100 million subscribers vs. just over 200 million at Netflix. Of course, there's so much more to Disney than Disney+, like the entire Parks business and arguably the most impressive back catalogue in the world. "Netflix creates shows, but Disney creates worlds." In Episode 13 of highly rated podcast Magic Markets, The Finance Ghost and Mohammed Nalla (Moe-Knows) discuss their views on which business [...]
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